Sunday October 29, 2017
Basel
Bets
Don’t load up, but definitely back Roger -405 over DelPo 
here. The line is wayyyy too skewed towards Roger given the exemplary level of tennis the Argentine has shown this fall in Shanghai, Stockholm, and here. He clearly loves this surface having won the tournament twice before (beating Roger in both finals), and played confidently all week shellacking opponents mastadonic and microscopic in size. DelPo just beat an admittedly injury-impaired Roger in NYC and then pushed him to the brink in 3 tough sets in the penultimate match in Shanghai, so he will be confident on court.
Roger’s #GOATsmashing of Goffin 1 and 2 in the semis, track record of dominance in his hometown of Basel, and simply Roger being Roger has inflated this line by at least 100-150 points from where it should be. Ultimately, that’s the premium you have to pay to enjoy the delectable pleasures of wagering on the GOAT Roger Federer, as sure an investment as there is in tennis. This match probably goes 3, and a potential berth in the Tour Finals rides on the outcome for DelPo. He’ll give it his all, so keep outlay small…but as always, love money on Roger is a must.
Vienna
Hints
We wish Edmund had prevailed in the semis, because then it would’ve been easier to load up on Tsonga here. Pouille is a player we’ve always liked, because he can do just about everything on the court pretty well and is a thrilling fighter when playing confidently. Unfortunately, every damn time this year we’ve expected Pouille to step it up or stumble, he’s done the opposite. We loaded up in Metz on the Frenchman in front of a home crowd, and instead he imploded against Pile of Consonants Gojowczyk. At the US Open, he showed tremendous mental toughness to vanquish a frisky Jared Donaldson only to mentally crumble against a clearly hampered by injury Schwartzman with a juicy wide open draw ahead of him. On clay he was Jekyll & Hyde, yet won a 250 on grass in Stuttgart on his least favorite surface. In short, our conclusion with Lucas Pouille is “who the fuck knows.” In terms of guiding you in a profitable direction here, we’d be inclined to take Tsonga, but surely aren’t wagering our own assets on a live underdog like Pouille who will take the court knowing full well he can win too.
Saturday October 28, 2017
Vienna
Bet-worthy
Tsonga -261 over Kohlschreiber (W): I like Jo-Willie to advance in a tough 3 setter to the Vienna finals. This surface clearly suits him, as he dismissed top seed Sasha Zverev in convincing fashion on the heels of finaling here in 2016. Kohlscreiber is always feisty, and his consistency off the ground ensures he’ll hang tough enough to steal a set here. That said, Tsonga appears to be in top form at the moment. Late in the sesason, identifying which players are truly motivated to win matches and generate consistency is the key to profiting on the tennis.
For most of 2017, Jo has faced injury- and age-related adversity. In small bursts, he’s generated his best tennis against competition high and low, and this seems like a Rotterdam/Lyon redux. He’s the only slam contending talent among the Vienna semifinalists, and we expect that advantage in caliber to show up tomorrow in the big moments. Case in point, Tsonga is 10-1 career against Kohlschreiber. It’s just a bad matchup for the German, as he cannot win points easily and also lacks the defense to adequately protect his weaker forehand from Tsonga’s mammoth groundstrokes. Either way this goes 3, but Tsonga is the strong play here. 10-1 isn’t an aberration.
No Opinion
Pouille-Edmund: Whoever wins should lose to Tsonga.
Basel
Bet-Worthy
Roger -650 over Goffin (W): Several reasons here…1) Roger is 5-0 career against Goffin, and for good reason…he’s essentially a Super Saiyan version of the Belgian in a larger body with sublime tennis instincts; 2) Rallying to beat Mannarino in a match Roger probably should’ve lost will take all the pressure off him—in other words, he’s been given a new life and fresh breath here in Basel, and he can come out flowing against Goffin; 3) the line leapt to -767 this morning as soon as markets opened in Europe…we think people are wising up to Roger’s strong position in this matchup
Del Potro -155 over Cilic (W): Personally, we don’t understand the disparity in this matchup—DelPo leads 9-2 H2H—even though the two are relatively even in the grand scheme of tennis history. Their skill sets even seem similar to a tennis layman. Perhaps the only reason I can understand DelPo dominating Cilic is that his howitzer forehand takes dominant court position away from the Croat. That pushes him off his spots and he isn’t adept at counterpunching or generating offense from defense.
Cilic looked like a joke against Fucsovics. He prevailed, but his nerves on court were appalling. I wasn’t even that nervous when I lost my virginity, and that ended faster than Westwood One performs a ten second station identification during a big football game. Cilic almost coughed up a double break lead in the third as well as a 6-1 third set breaker advantage. While I don’t think the mental issues carry over, I can’t imagine he’d take the court confidently knowing DelPo has his number. We expect DelPo to prevail, purely on confidence alone.
Friday October 27, 2017
Vienna
Hunches
Schwartzman -122 over Kohlschreiber (L)….popcorn match of the day! We support the Argentine here due to his recent form, but realistically speaking either guy could prevail. They both love to smash off the ground and are comfortable with long rallies. We’ll go with Scwhartzman here because he’s scalped higher quality opponents with his gamesmanship. His ceiling appears higher than that of the German.
Sasha Zverev -145 to beat Tsonga (L)… honestly this is a pure form play. Tsonga beat Dzumhur more because of his opponents’ deteriorating fitness than his own form. Meanwhile, Sasha is loaded for bear and ready to win Vienna. Tsonga is past his prime and cant do much to punish Sasha besides thump forehands, which the German will gladly return pointedly with his backhand. Sasha would have to spray to lose this one. I’m honestly appalled we aren’t wagering on Sasha here, because there isn’t a stroke in the book where the kid can’t outdo Tsonga in a key moment. Zverev will prevail, regardless, and he’s on a mission.
Hints
Edmund might spring the upset over Struff…all comes down to return of serve. Struff is banking on winning easy points on serve and holding comfortably. If Edmund can get enough balls into neutral on return, he will prevail. In any rally that gets to neutral, Edmund has the advantage due to his power off the ground from both wings. Plus, Struff gets overzealous with his forehand when he presses for cheap points, and I can see Edmund counterpunching that for winners. All told, this matchup is essentially a tossup, and comes down to which player you see as hotter at the moment. We see that player as Edmund, but who knows.
No Opinion
Gasquet-Pouille: Baguette city. One of these croissants advances to the semis…
Basel
Bets
Roger -2300 over Mannarino : Let’s be real here…to quote the great Kagan, Roger isn’t losing to Mannarino in his hometown in the quarters. I would legit b8 with sandpaper if Roger lost. Put the kids’ college fund on this match, Roger is winning in straights. If anything, that’s the bet, but speaking in terms of tennis tactics…there isn’t a single stroke Mannarino possesses to threaten Roger. Cockmeat sandwich ten ways to Sunday here.
Cilic -750 vs FUCS …honestly this deserves minimal analysis. Cilic hasn’t lost to a player as poor as FUCS this entire season. It would require a colossal failure on his part to succumb to FUCS’ penisry, and that simply isn’t happening. Cilic is cruising and will vanquish FUCS into oblivion. Use him and Roger as juice for parlays; in other words, if you feel good about any other player, parlay him with Roger and Cilic for the free $ if you win.
Goffin -237 over Sock : This goes far beyond our predilection towards Goffin. Sock’s best skill is taking normal rallies and generating offense from nothing with his corkscrew forehand. Goffin loves taking time away from opponents and playing precision tennis. Over the course of 2-3 sets, I think this unnerves Sock and susses out a slew of errors. Sock has surprised us with his form this week, but Goffin won’t be having it. I trust in the Belgian to deliver a workmanlike surgical deconstruction of the erratic Sock.
Hunches
DelPo -221 over BA (W)…at the US open, we were fooled by BA’s tantalizing potential of keeping balls in play and fighting to the death. We grossly underestimated DelPo’s ability to dictate pace and take time away from BA, essentially neutering his greatest strength and ensuring comprehensive dominance. There’s no reason to expect anything differently here, as DelPo enjoys the same perks he had before; to wit, his mammoth forehand ought to push BA side to side until DelPo finds the winner. That said, given how DelPo mentally conceded a set to Sousa and all the tennis he’s played in recent weeks, there’s a chance he gets lazy and allows BA to steal one. Nevertheless, we encourage big bets on DelPo. Our shyness is largely unfounded…go big or go home, i.e. go DelPo!
Thursday October 26, 2017
Vienna
Bets
Edmund -610 over Novak (W): Ordinarily we’d be a bit leery about Edmund receiving such a large handicap, even against Kagan’s brother. That being said, always trust in the shatness of your opponent, and here we have an absolute monster of a deuce sitting in a Viennese tennis toilet. Dennis Novak, an Austrian clay court specialist who only plays Futures events, has no business being in an ATP event let alone on the precipice of the quarters. We caution against going berserk with outlay here, as you never want to load up on a player as relatively unreliable as Edmund. Who knows, he could totally overlook his opponent and spray errors while Novak elevates behind the roar of a boisterous Austrian crowd hopped up on chocolate and espresso.
More likely than not, however, the first set will involve some long drawn out games as Novak scrambles for every ball like his life is on the line. He might even snag an early break as an overzealous Edmund overcooks some otherwise relatively easy put away shots. The longer the match goes on, the more Edmund will settle in and impose his will. The only danger here is that Novak made it through qualies, and this will be his fourth match here. He’s on fire by his standards, and sometimes that unbridled confidence can carry a player through. From a tennis perspective, a Kyle Edmund who dispatched Lazarus Ferrer in R1 ought to win this match 10/10 times.
Schwartzman -137 over Carreno Busta : Kagan’s Schwartzman is standing at full attention now after the Argentine comfortably vanquished Fognini, and he wants it stroked with additional paper currency. CB’s recent form has been pisspoor, as he’s bombed out early in each tourney since his deep US Open run. Schwartz seems to be heating up as the year winds down, and he might’ve gone deep in Shanghai had Roger not been his R2 opponent.
This one is purely a form/confidence play. Schwartz has it, while CB does not one iota. As the mock Russian oligarch brags in the DirecTV commercial…”opulence, I has it.” Schwartzman is looking mighty opulent tomorrow, and you’d be remiss to not bet it. I could see CB win if this goes a long 3, as by then he will have grown comfortable in the match. Even then, however, in the biggest of points Schwartz will be more confident given his recent form than CB, who has consistently been unable to elevate when pushed since the US.
Hunches
Ramos +110 over Struff (L): You’d think Struff would be a hot play, what with his dominant win over Cuevas and his predilection towards excelling indoors on faster, low bouncing surfaces. Given Ramos’ lucky win over Querrey, he’d ordinarily be ripe for the taking, but we like Ramos here. His serve return capabilities are outstanding, as he consistently denied a huge-serving Big Sam from winning easy points on serve in the biggest moments. Further, Ramos just beat Struff in Shanghai by counter-punching him a few too many times, even though the German often looked the better player in rallies (as Querrey did too). This is just how Ramos rolls.
Cuevas’ horridness is underrated of late, so I don’t put too much weight in Struff rolling through him more easily than a German tank into Paris. Not betting it, because Ramos is unreliable and we don’t like taking underdogs who aren’t either in-form or on their favorite surface. Ramos has been shyte lately and he might lay an egg here. As an underdog, he may be worth some small outlay though.
Dzumhur +236 over Tsonga (L): Tread carefully here, as Tsonga is confident and hot right now despite largely having a shitty year—maybe even his old age regression season. My gut says this should stay in hints, but we advocate Dzumhur here because his form has been at an absolute career-best these last few months. He made quality runs in Los Cabos, Winston-Salem, St Petersburg, and Moscow, winning the latter two. He loves hardcourt, and more importantly lusts for being a pain in the ass on the court.
He covers court like a poor man’s Djokovic, and has extremely deft hands. He loves scrambling full stop to a short ball only to leave a pin-dropper volley falling gently just over the net for a winner. He’ll work in slice when you want rhythm and pace. His defense allows him to hang tough in power rallies even though he can’t generate too much of his own. I would be gungho about the upset except for the fact that Tsonga has the power and serving ability to keep Dzumhur off his back. Dzumhur needs the opponent to try in vain to win off the ground only to be unraveled by his crafty macropenis wizardry. Tsonga meanwhile can get to 30 every game on serves alone, and is aggressive enough on return to keep Dzumhur preoccupied with holding serve. Sometimes upsets appear too good to be true, and this just might be one. It’s worth hunching though, because the opportunity is juicy on paper.
Hints
Thiem-Gasquet should be fascinating. I’m not sure we learned much from the ultimately disappointing would-be popcorn match between Young Rublev the Russian and Thiem. Rublev carried over his poor, sloppy form in Moscow to the Austrian hardcourts, hemorrhaging errors at the worst times possible and allowing an unconfident Thiem to ease into victory. Despite breaking Rublev four times, I’m not buying this victory as being indicative of Thiem regaining form. This match is precisely what will tell us if Thiem is bet-worthy again. Gasquet has been frisky of late, and pounded Lopez R1. Thiem *should* win, despite his lack of comfort on low bouncing hard courts. Gasquet’s form makes him a potentially attractive upset play, but unfortunately Vegas has already priced this in; to wit, the Frenchman is only available at +120. Avoid this match unless you want to have some fun.
Maybe consider a little Garcia-Lopez action to upset Pouille. At +232 and in-form fresh off pummeling an extremely tight Kevin Anderson, he could easily spring an upset in a long rally-filled affair with Pouille. We have no feel in terms of laying our money, because we often misread Pouille. He zigs when we think he’ll zag. We’ve gotten on his bandwagon just before he dips and just after he rebounds. So maybe just go big on Pouille to win, because he’s much more talented than the Walking Dead extra from Spain and enjoys hardcourt tennis. Ultimately, I see this as going similarly to the Bautista-Agut Harrison match, where the underdog fought gamely but just didn’t have the game to break serve often enough.
Basel
Bets
Federer -1557 over Paire is quadruple lemons. It’s so beyond guaranteed and obvious, it’s even a suck each other’s dicks kind of match. In other words, it’s the kind of matchup where you can name any stakes no matter how outlandish, and you’ll never actually have your bluff called. Roger made mincemeat of I Am Le Tired in Dubai, and will do so again here. Less than zero % chance Roger’s run in his hometown ends at the hands of Paire. Clearly this is baked into the price, so juice every wager with Roger and parlay him hard.
DelPo -445 shall bludgeon Benneteau in a match that’ll look closer than it should, but Delpo will dominate decisively in whatever set is the decider. We are a little worried this line is so much lower than the -610 from his opener against Sousa, as we figured something in the low 500s, but perhaps there’s some concern for DelPo’s energy level given that he let up for a set against Sousa and has played 10+ matches the last 3 weeks in 2 different continents. Benneteau mentally will take the court with the hubris it takes to think he can win, but we don’t necessarily fear his form after R1. Beating Donald Young is easier than bringing home a heffer at closing time. It’ll take 3 to beat DelPo, and we don’t think Benneteau at this age can sustain his level over that time. Ride Roger and the big Argentine on your large parlays. Slip in Edmund or Cilic too if you want to load up on what seems like low-hanging fruit.
Hints
Mannarino-Shapovalov is a reprisal of the young Canadian’s final heroic victory in Montreal before Sasha Zverev finally put him down. We are conflicted on this one, so instead we’ll treat it as the popcorn match of the day that it deserves to be. Shapovalov recently has looked like a teenager should when dealing with newfound, unexpected success and the resultant pressure that comes with trying to repeat said accomplishments on a regular basis. Mannarino, meanwhile, hasn’t lost in his second match at a tournament since clay season, except once on grass to Sasha Zverev. If he gets a confidence-generating victory at any new venue, he seems to build off it until facing his inevitable demise against an elite talent.
This may be a textbook smooth Mannarino second round victory, or perhaps Shapovalov comes out hot buoyed by the confidence of already beating the Frenchman in their last matchup. This either goes Mannarino in straights, or Shapovalov in another 3 set epic.
Cilic should crush Coric, but at -817 he’s awfully pricey given the young Croat’s robust talent potential, which he’s seldom tapped into of late. Cilic boasts a 4-0 career record against his next gen countryman, but both of the 2017 meetings went 3 sets, on hardcourt to boot. Defending champ Cilic clearly loves this surface, as the low bounces put more shots in his wheelhouse enabling the big Croat to pummel balls with sharp, deep angles. He only got to play 1 set against a clearly hampered Florian Mayer in R1, however, so perhaps Coric ambushes in the first before going Gohan over Cell SSJ2 to conquer the Croatian Palindrome. There’s good money in Coric +627, but the vast disparity in spread almost seems fishy in and of itself. This could be a classic seemingly obvious parlay wrecker.
No opinion
Mayer-Fucsovics: Emery’s dick.
Wednesday October 25, 2017
Vienna
Bets
DelPo -750 over Sousa : This is a lemons bet. In other words, we will both scarf a juicy, citrusy, acid reflux-inducing lemon if Pennis Sousa prevails. Include it in all of your bets as juice, and load up on the Argentine. Sousa can’t do much on this surface to threaten him, and DelPo is playing some of the best tennis on tour right now. Every rally that gets to neutral will favor DelPo, because his strokes are too powerful for Sousa to do anything with. Barring a DelPo injury or sudden tired legs (he’s played a lot of tennis lately with semis Shanghai, title in Stockholm, and now this), there’s essentially no scenario of actual tennis strategy that delivers a victory here for Sousa. His serve isn’t good enough to play redline tennis for two hours and steal this in 2. DelPo is primed to make a run at London, and this will hardly be a speedbump on his path. More like an SUV running over a Portuguese squirrel.
Hunches
Donaldson -101 over Fucsovics (L): Donaldson is better than Fucsovics, and that’s all you need to know. The only reason this isn’t a bet is that FUCS made it through qualies, while Donaldson has a penchant to play sporadically and lose close rather than pull through. That being said, we’ve seen a lot of growth from the young American this year and he’s reached the stage where he should beat Challenger level competition like FUCS.
Goffin -214 over Chung (W): It’s hard for us to render a quality opinion on this match, because both guys are firmly entrenched in our stable of favorite players to bet. Chung has clearly shaken off the doldrums of the summer to regain his strong spring form, exhibiting relentless defense and counterpunching ability. Goffin could certainly succumb to Chung’s tenacity and power from behind the baseline, but we think his experience and precision will draw out errors from Chung over time. The first set will be tight, but Goffin latches on like a parasite to eke out a win in 3.
Hints
BA vs Harrison is trickier than it might seem. BA looked amazing against Kukushkin in round 1, while Harrison clobbered Dolgopolov. Ryan Harrison is quietly playing the best tennis of his life this year, especially lately, and at +273 he might be worth some small change. That being said, guys like BA are not a good matchup for Harrison because they don’t beat themselves. BA will most likely rally Harrison to death, and suss out the American’s inevitable errors.
Even though Sock rallied valiantly to beat Pospisil, he ailed physically in the final games and escaped by the skin of his teeth. Haase occasionally plays high-level tennis, and he will be more than happy to take advantage of a wounded Sock. Unquestionably, Sock is a better player than Haase at full strength and we really liked the mental toughness the American displayed to avoid disaster against Pospisil in R1. That said, a hampered Sock may fall here to the Dutchman.
No Opinion
Bemelmans-Mannarino: Which Mannarino shows up? Je ne sais quoi.
Coric-Laaksonen: Classic Emery’s dick.
Young-Benneteau: It pains me not to be able to bet against D, but Benneteau is too shitty
Basel
Bets
A Zverev -363 v. Simon (W): I really hope this isn’t the trap match. Watching Simon’s first round victory was entertaining given how he and Gulbis literally wore the exact same Adidas outfit and share similar facial hair, but the Frenchman is so limited compared to his prime. Zverev was forced by Troicki to elevate in 3, and he succeeded despite some serious outbursts and negative self-talk. There’s zero reason for Sasha to lose to Corpse Simon at this point, but if we’re going to lose a bet tomorrow, I have a bad feeling it’s here because this seems so obvious. Indoors, Sasha ought to keep Simon on the run and put away the extra ball the Frenchman will often force him to hit.
So long as Sasha stays disciplined in what most assuredly will be countless long, slow, patient rallies, he will prevail—especially in the backhand to backhand exchanges where Simon usually confounds opponents but here plays into Zverev’s strength. If this is a loser for us, it’ll be an ugly and highly frustrating match that reveals some youthful mistakes by Sasha. He’s one of the strongest players on tour mentally already, however, and so we trust the German phenom to avoid playing down to his opponent’s penis level.
Kohlschreiber -222 over Herbert (W): Herbert is a craft big server, bringing his lefty sweeping elegant serve to bear on opponents, complemented nicely by his volleying prowess honed in doubles. Kohlschreiber displayed excellent tennis in a round 1 victory over Isner, breaking the American twice and hitting clean passing shots all over the court. I would fully expect him to do so again, against a lesser opponent this time no less. Herbert’s game lacks diversity, and so I struggle to see how he consistently breaks Kohli or wins protracted rallies. Doesn’t bode well for success unless Herbert serves impeccably throughout. We are confident in a medium outlay, if not a large one.
Schwartzman -136 over Fognini (W): Kagan special right here. He’s the Schwartzman whisperer, originally discovering him during clay and riding him ever since. Diego has played consistently strong hardcourt tennis since Montreal, and doesn’t exhibit the same highs and lows of play as Fognini. This is almost assuredly going 3, hence why we aren’t gungho about it, but Schwartzman is the much more consistent player. He will annoy Fognini, and frustrate him into overhitting into too many errors. Their rallies will be long and entertaining to watch, and the longer this match goes the more likely Fognini’s errors will catch up to him against the more consistent Schwartz. Small outlay on the Argentine, but we feel good about it.
Hints
Tsonga v Khachanov is a classic popcorn match, as these two are fully capable of producing a thrilling match if they both come to play. I’d be inclined to bet Tsonga if you’re feeling risky, as he just won Antwerp and tends to string together strong small tournament results (see earlier this year in Marseille/Rotterdam). His serve is cooking right now and he feels comfortable on court. Khachy, meanwhile, has been wildly erratic and often downright terrible in recent months. The longer I write this paragraph the more I am dumbfounded as to why we aren’t betting Tsonga with medium outlay. Khachy has shown next to nothing the past few months to suggest he’s going to stop spraying errors and deliver a complete performance to defeat an experienced in-form Tsonga, who enjoys indoor season more than most. Bet Tsonga, honestly, but this match still feels weird for some reason.
No Opinion
Dzumhur-Berankis: Rematch of the Moscow final. Hard avoid, who knows the motivation here given quick turnaround. Ordinarily this would be bet Dzumhur, but violates the Iron Laws.
Tuesday October 24, 2017
Vienna
Bets
SNIPE: Anderson -352 over Garcia Lopez**FISH**: Ordinarily this would be 100% full steam ahead, pound the big serving South African ten ways to Sunday. Garcia-Lopez is a total penis at this point in his career, playing exclusively on the Challenger circuit since May. He’s a clay court specialist to boot, well past his prime at 34 and shouldn’t remotely have the game to threaten Anderson.
If you’re feeling lucky, roll big with Anderson but this one falls under what we like to call “fish” (i.e. a fishy line clearly designed by Vegas to lure in bets on a favorite). It should be much higher, maybe around -500 or more. Anderson has not shown mental toughness one iota the last few weeks, losing in breakers to Verdasco, Struff, and Ryan fucking Harrison of all people. GGL, meanwhile, won a hardcourt challenger in Uzbekistan last week, so he comes in hot. I’m avoiding, but it’s delicious on paper.
Hunches
Querrey -267 (L) might be worth a bite of the apple against Ramos, who has been godawful for the most part since his career-best clay season. Part of me thinks I’ll regret not betting Sam here, because he’s really only lost to more talented players in recent months while cleaning up against the shittier guys. I’m worried about his confidence after losing the heartbreaker at the US Open to Anderson though, as Sam got dusted in the Laver Cup and came up short in the big points against Gasquet and Dimitrov in China.
That said, Ramos returns serve extremely well—this was on full display when he beat Struff in straights in Shanghai and pushed Cilic hard for the first 30 minutes in the quarters—and that may throw big Sam off his game if he can’t win free points. I’m putting faith in the fact that Ramos has been horrific far more often than he’s been good in recent months; case in point, first round losses to the penis brigade of Bublik, Vesely, and Lajovic in 3 of his last 4 tourneys. This one is going 7-5 6-3 for the American in relatively comfortable fashion, or it’ll be a horrible pain in the ass loss for Querrey backers where
Ferrer -128 over Edmund (L): I can’t quite back this one up quantifiably to say “go bet it,” but something tells me Corpse Ferrer will munch on steak and ale pie in the morning. Edmund has actually been quite feisty this fall, playing Donaldson, Zverev, and Cilic tough in his post-US open losses. Frankly, he’s had a solid under-the-radar year, but can’t generate enough consistency on serve or off the ground to string consecutive wins together. Ferrer is such a grinder that I could easily see him suss out enough errors from Edmund and frustrate him, probably winning in 3 after Edmund races to a quick first set before unraveling. Edmund’s firepower is such that I don’t want to lay money on Ferrer, but the Spaniard is underrated on indoor hard and I like him to prevail here.
Hints
Thiem/Rublev is the popcorn match of the day! Thiem is probably the play only because he’ll be super motivated in front of the home crowd to play well, and he has to be laser focused to snap his 3 match o’fer losing streak from the Asian swing. I don’t think Thiem is swooning late in the year like 2016, and the only reason I’m not hunching or betting this match is that Rublev can be scary good if he’s feeling it. We are biased towards Rublev for sure due to discovering him as a horse late in the clay season after he took Schwartzman to the wall at the French Open over 5 sets. Nevertheless, this is a match you only wager on for fun, because the tennis will be outstanding if Rublev shows up and at that point it could be a coin toss
Pella is feisty and can scalp a higher ranked player who’s off his game, which is exactly what he faces against Carreno Busta. CB has been atrocious since missing out on a career-defining moment at the US Open, bombing out in his first or second match at every tournament this fall. Upset potential here for the Argentine, who looked great upsetting Dominic Thiem in Asia.
No opinion
Novak-Fabbiano: Not featuring Novak Djokovic, but D. Novak; horrid
Pouille-Ofner: Pouille seems obvious, but he’s bombed out round 1 of many tournaments this year and Ofner might be frisky playing before home crowd
Basel
Bets
Roger -1335 over Tiafoe (W): But of course. No words need to be used except that love money is always warranted on Roger. Too pricey to go nuts here, especially since Tiafoe is frisky, but I think Roger will want to remind the youngster that the 5 setter at the US was anomalous.
Cilic -754 over Florian Mayer (W): This is what we call a “lemons” match, in that if we are wrong we will eat a whole lemon raw. Kagan has already performed this ignominious task twice, while Carter has yet to fail the lemons test. Cilic is defending Basel champion and looked outstanding in Shanghai, reaching the semis and pushing Rafa in two tough sets. Mayer is washed up at this point, and Cilic should make quick work of him in 75 minutes or less. Parlay Cilic with all your action if feeling bold.
Sock -285 over Pospisil (W): Take our advice on any match involving Jack Sock with a grain of salt, because we almost always seem to misread him. One of our golden rules betting tennis is to be absolutely certain of the shatness of your opponent when you lay $$, and this is a textbook example. Pospisil has talent—he made the Wimby quarters in 2015—but he’s had a terrible season, especially of late. He’s bombed out in qualies this fall at each stop, succumbing to Fresh House-Made Travaglia, Basilashvili, and a sushi chef in Tokyo.
Sock has battled injuries and confidence issues off and on since April after a hot start to the year, but is a reliable fighter when feeling good on court. I loved the competitiveness and big game showman skills he displayed at the Laver Cup (déjà vu from his gold medal winning efforts in Rio). Further, he looked strong last week in Stockholm, dispatching Chardy in straights as well in a valiant, tight 3 set defeat to Fognini. Most importantly, he seems healthy, and that should be more than enough against a Canadian Popsicle melting under the pressure of no confidence and poor form.
Hunches
Struff -211 over Cuevas (W): This one is simple; Struff is a macropenis, who can win a match or two at any given tournament with his big serve and aggressive play. Cuevas, meanwhile, has been one of the worst players on tour since clay season and is ripe to be cocked. I should probably bet this, but I always have a tough time relying on Struff without seeing him first, which oftentimes means he’s not worth betting any longer because his second round opponent is too good. He just beat Anderson in Asia, so fire away at this one if you’re feeling good. We would bet it too with a more risk embracing approach, but feel Cilic/Sock are the better plays.
Hints
MZverev might be worth a look over LMayer, who just lost in Sweden to Elias Ymer and has largely sucked since putting a real scare into Rafa 3rd round at the US. Mischa can lose to just about anyone though on the wrong day, and Mayer is a gamer off the ground.
Goffin is one of our favorite players on tour, and we’ve profited off him reliably for much of the year. That being said, he just lost to Tzatziki sauce in his home tournament of Antwerp, and looked awfully tired in doing so. He’s fought hard to get back into London contention after missing several months due to the French Open injury, and maybe playing all that tennis in Asia (won Shenzhen, Tokyo, and played Shanghai) caught up with him. I wonder if he might need another early exit and rest time to gear up for Paris, and Gojowczyk can be slippery on the right day as evidenced by winning Metz in September. Pile of consonants as we call him also made it through qualies, so he’s coming in hot against Goffin’s tired legs. Avoid, or maybe go for the upset. Can’t recommend betting against one of our guys though.
No opinion
Paire-Johnson: Who the fuck knows.
Dolgopolov-Harrison: We are shocked that our money isn’t on Dolgy, as we looooove betting against Harrison every chance we get. Respect for his recent form, beating Kevin Anderson, and the potential for Dolgy to mentally quit on the match or take a bribe. Avoid, and who cares.
Monday October 23, 2017
Vienna
Hunches
Gasquet -200 over Lopez : 5-1 Gasquet h2h doesn’t really mean much to me since all but 1 match date back to the beginning of Obama’s presidency. This one is simple…Gasquet is playing much, much better tennis right now, while Lopez has largely been trash the entire second half since his ankle injury at the end of his stellar grass season. It’s hard for old guys like Lopez to generate good form out of thin air. Meanwhile, Gasquet is logging a strong fall as he tries to regain his ranking from a lackluster and injured early 2017. Post-US, he’s strung together consecutive match wins making deep QF runs in Tokyo and Shanghai, plus won a challenger. At this late point in the year, it’s really all about how much these guys give a shit or what’s on the line. Trying to find your form is essentially pointless with only a week or two left. Only reason we don’t have money on this is because we are biased against Gasquet due to his failings earlier in the year. He’s worth some outlay here.
Hints
Sasha Zverev, despite being one of the best players on tour in best of 3 and brandishing every skill necessary to excel on indoor hard, won’t have it easy against Viktor Troicki. The Serb is a macropenis at this point, a wily veteran capable of brief stretches of high quality play that briefly interrupt his otherwise inconsistent and lackluster form these days. Not at all willing to call this an upset, as Zverev’s recent form has been strong and resilient despite his lack of big results the last two months (tough losses to DelPo and Kyrgios in Asia). but anyone looking for an easy heavy favorite to add onto parlays for juice or go big for small, low risk winnings should look elsewhere.
Kohlschreiber and Isner are a total toss-up, because anytime Isner plays someone comparably talented in best of 3, he could simply serve impeccably and win in two breakers or better. He’s comfortable indoors as evidenced by his finals in Paris last year, but really any best of 3 tournament besides those on clay can be boom or bust for Isner if he finds his serving rhythm. I wouldn’t bet it for this reason.
That being said, if you do I would lean Kohlschreiber for sure. For whatever reason, he handles Isner’s mammoth serving quite well. Kohli triumphed in 3 consecutive years at the US Open over Isner, (2012-14), so he’s totally comfortable playing big John at premium tournaments. His serve returning skills and counter-punching skills with his potent one-hander mean he can beat Isner even if the American serves well. I’m probably biased as an American towards Isner, which prevents me for hunching/betting Kohlschreiber. Note that he also plays for pride in his country of residence Austria (won Kitzbuhel on clay earlier this summer).
No opinion:
Simon-Gulbis: Emery’s dick
Herbert-Tomic: Scourge on the eyes
Basel
Bet-worthy: Chung -285 vs. Lorenzi (Winner)
Chung has scuffled in recent months since his flourish on clay, but in recent weeks he has shown signs of life particularly in defeat against Kevin Anderson last week in Stockholm. Despite the 3 and 2 scoreline, he fought valiantly and really forced Anderson to hit big winners past him. Pasta Lorenzi, meanwhile, has served up Olive Garden caliber tennis in the fall since his summer of Carabba’s, losing to the dregs of the ATP tour.
Stylistically, Chung’s physical, relentless defense means long rallies for Pasta and he should eventually overwhelm the Italian by being a little bit better at all facets of the game. Only a slew of Chung errors and/or mental capitulation on the Korean’s part can prevent him from winning, and the added incentive of trying to qualify for Milan means unlimited breadsticks from Olive Garden for young Hyeon. 7.5/10 confidence.
Hints
Shapovalov-Sugita should be match of the day. I can’t wait to see the young fiery Canadian try to regain his mojo with a berth in Milan on the line! Sugita, the consummate pro, is an absolute pest to play for non-elite players. Shapovalov hasn’t found the verve and pizzazz he displayed in Canada, the US, and Laver Cup, so I wouldn’t bet this one. More likely than not, Sugita wins, but IF Shapovalov prevails, he’s a live play going forward.
No Opinion
Bautista-Agut-Kukushkin: Would be hunch BA but Kukushkin came through qualies, which is usually a good sign to avoid if a decent player finds rhythm on a surface before facing a first round opponent playing his first match at the venue.
Haase-Chiudinelli: Wretched
Hitting Lines 